Territory, Religion, Greed, and Power: Why We Keep Repeating the Same Fights
This piece first appeared on Substack. I republish it here voluntarily — not as repetition, but as trace; a place where words can rest after their first flight. Each entry in this log forms part of an ongoing reflection on memory, awareness, and connection.👉🏻 rftjon.substack.com
1.
Russia–Ukraine War
Core origin: Post‑2014 annexation of Crimea and Donbas conflict. Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion pursues imperial security, territorial control, and anti‑NATO aims.
➡ Root cause: Imperial-era grievances, geopolitical rivalry, and Russian revanchism, or NATO threat?
2.
Sudanese Civil War (SAF vs RSF)
– ongoing since April 2023
Core origin: Power struggle following 2021 military coup. Competition between SAF and paramilitary RSF, with roots in post‑Darfur injustice and militia politics.
➡ Root cause: Fragmented governance, militarized factions, ethnic fault lines dating back decades.
3.
Eastern DRC – M23 and Rwanda-backed conflict
– active since 2022, peace deal June 2025
Core origin: Legacy of 1994 Rwandan genocide, refugee flows, mineral-rich land, and competing ethnic politics. M23 (Tutsi-aligned) backed by Rwanda fights DRC state seen as harboring former Hutu genocidaires.
➡ Root cause: Ethnic tension, resource competition, and unresolved regional legacies.
4.
Cambodia–Thailand Border Clash (Preah Vihear region)
– May–July 2025
Core origin: Century-old boundary ambiguities inherited from colonial-era treaty lines. Control over Preah Vihear temple and surrounding land for national pride and tourism.
➡ Root cause: Historical colonial maps, nationalistic symbolism, and territorial disputes.
5.
Middle East–Red Sea/Yemen crisis
and Gaza–Israel conflict
Core origin: The Yemeni Houthi campaign against Israel-linked targets in the Red Sea stems from the broader Iran–Saudi–Yemen proxy war and unresolved Gaza conflict. Gaza–Israel escalation ongoing since 2023.
➡ Root cause: Sectarian blocs, unresolved Palestinian–Israeli conflict, and regional rivalry.
6.
Insurgencies in the Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso)
Core origin: Post‑colonial hegemony, ethnic marginalization, extremist groups (e.g. JNIM), climate stress, and weak states.
➡ Root cause: State fragility, jihadist expansion, and environmental displacement.
7.
Gang violence and collapse in Haiti
Core origin: Political breakdown since the assassination of President Moïse (2021), rising criminal networks, natural disasters amplifying fragility.
➡ Root cause: Governance vacuum, poverty, and armed criminal fragmentation.
8.
Myanmar and other Asia‑Pacific internal conflicts
Core origin: Post-coup (2021) military oppression of ethnic groups leading to civil war; long-standing local insurgencies in Indonesia, Timor and Java over resource and identity issues.
➡ Root cause: Authoritarian legacy, ethnic separatism, and state exclusion.
9.
Iran–Israel Strategic Confrontation
Core origin: Began post-1979 Iranian Revolution when Tehran’s clerical regime opposed Israel’s existence. The rivalry escalated over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its support for anti-Israel proxies.
➡ Root cause: Ideological antagonism, regional power struggle, and nuclear deterrence.
This confrontation is multi-layered, involving cyberwarfare, sabotage, and shadow air campaigns (e.g. Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities in Syria). While not a declared war, it’s a simmering asymmetric conflict that could escalate rapidly—especially with Israel’s recent strikes in Syria and Iranian retaliation through proxies.
10.
Hamas–Israel Conflict (Gaza Strip)
Core origin: Rooted in the broader Israeli–Palestinian conflict, with Hamas emerging in the late 1980s as a militant offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood opposing Israel’s existence.
➡ Root cause: Occupation, blockade, and competing claims to sovereignty and security.
After Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, Hamas took control in 2007, leading to repeated wars (2008, 2012, 2014, 2021, 2023–ongoing). The situation is fueled by siege conditions, internal Palestinian divisions, and Israeli security policy. Hamas views armed resistance as legitimate; Israel views it as terrorism.
11.
Hezbollah–Israel (Southern Lebanon Front)
Core origin: Hezbollah formed in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. While initially rooted in Shiite resistance, it became Iran’s main proxy in the Levant.
➡ Root cause: Resistance legacy, Iranian strategic depth, and disputed borders.
Israel and Hezbollah fought a full war in 2006. Since then, tensions have remained high, with cross-border skirmishes, drone warfare, and mutual threats. In 2024–25, Hezbollah increased support for Gaza, risking a second front. Any major conflict would draw Lebanon further into collapse.
Summary Table
Reflection
The Middle East’s fires are entangled, not isolated:
· Iran fuels ideological and strategic depth via asymmetric warfare—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and PIJ in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Syria and Iraq.
· Israel maintains a doctrine of preemptive deterrence, conducting precision strikes to prevent encirclement or nuclear development.
· Every skirmish is shaped by regional power realignments (e.g. Abraham Accords, Saudi–Iran détente, U.S. retrenchment).
· The Gaza war of 2023–25 has reignited pan-Arab solidarity in ways unseen since the Second Intifada, but intra-Palestinian divisions (Fatah–Hamas) remain unresolved.
· The real danger lies in escalation through miscalculation, e.g. a Hezbollah rocket barrage triggering full-scale Israeli retaliation, dragging Iran in directly.
These are not merely religious or tribal conflicts. They are deep-rooted geopolitical power plays, clothed in narratives of historical injustice and fought with modern technology and ancient passions.
History shows us that most modern conflicts are deeply rooted—whether in colonial agreements, the trauma of genocide, state collapse, or long-standing ethnic rivalries. Homo sapiens and Neanderthals have rarely solved territory‑and‑power disputes by evolution alone; we inherit them, replay them, and sometimes reinvent them.
To quell today’s fires thoughtfully, leadership must embrace historical acknowledgment, local legitimacy, and long-term frameworks that go beyond winners‑and‑losers. Otherwise, treaties or ceasefires risk becoming transient façades—like the Versailles Treaty or the Preah Vihear tempel—if the roots remain unaddressed. 👉🏻 👉🏻
Robert F. Tjón, August 3, 2025
https://rftjon.substack.com
